Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.901229 1.056375 1.230163 1.439284 1.684174 1.961982 2.301247
2024-10-20 0.624414 0.819329 1.063299 1.391265 1.821089 2.365964 3.110498
2024-10-27 0.476896 0.678193 0.950903 1.347709 1.911332 2.684897 3.830579
2024-11-03 0.399379 0.606261 0.905124 1.368872 2.072105 3.101688 4.729920
2024-11-10 0.361740 0.580981 0.915762 1.464968 2.346295 3.710834 5.995051
2024-11-17 0.321694 0.543278 0.898773 1.511628 2.546029 4.229508 7.194488
2024-11-24 0.282692 0.499727 0.863926 1.520801 2.681675 4.658847 8.306204
2024-12-01 0.247466 0.456272 0.821481 1.508216 2.774476 5.023565 9.354011
2024-12-08 0.219107 0.420192 0.785773 1.500525 2.871810 5.404943 10.481757
2024-12-15 0.198219 0.394499 0.764601 1.515300 3.010526 5.876883 11.843259
2024-12-22 0.172396 0.355318 0.712305 1.461973 3.008894 6.079938 12.705271
2024-12-29 0.167170 0.356358 0.738022 1.566798 3.336300 6.969846 15.084309
2025-01-05 0.146487 0.322957 0.690944 1.517198 3.342495 7.219233 16.181270
2025-01-12 0.128436 0.292629 0.646275 1.466735 3.340704 7.454431 17.291729
2025-01-19 0.113260 0.266342 0.606475 1.420814 3.341461 7.693777 18.446491
2025-01-26 0.105022 0.254658 0.597314 1.443132 3.501125 8.310752 20.575520
2025-02-02 0.102851 0.256952 0.620352 1.544470 3.862280 9.444454 24.125794
2025-02-09 0.097435 0.250519 0.621873 1.593677 4.103421 10.325525 27.184589
2025-02-16 0.090267 0.238615 0.608428 1.603351 4.246378 10.984808 29.775882
2025-02-23 0.082668 0.224455 0.587343 1.590078 4.327517 11.497882 32.057574
2025-03-02 0.076111 0.212106 0.569206 1.581968 4.421229 12.056765 34.552141
2025-03-09 0.071250 0.203681 0.560244 1.597549 4.582173 12.818080 37.734908
2025-03-16 0.063891 0.187187 0.527283 1.541312 4.533146 12.997047 39.269325